AGP Executive Report

Xenophobia Crisis in SA: Mozambique says five citizens were killed in Mossel Bay during anti-immigrant violence, while South African police confirm two Mozambicans dead and investigate; hundreds of Mozambicans and Malawians fled to community halls as mobs allegedly went door-to-door, and repatriation is underway with hundreds expected to return by flight. Mozambique Response: Maputo says about 500 people are sheltered and repatriation processes are already moving, after earlier reports of burnt shacks and deaths tied to the unrest. South Africa Immigration Crackdown: President Cyril Ramaphosa vowed tougher enforcement against illegal migration—more workplace inspections and border security—while insisting there is “no place for xenophobia and vigilantism.” Cabo Delgado Security Debate: UK High Commissioner Helen Lewis warned that security solutions alone won’t end terrorism in Cabo Delgado, calling for governance, investment and private-sector engagement. Child Labour Watch: In Manica, over 170 minors are still involved in illegal mining despite a two-year campaign to curb child labour. Regional Minerals Push: UN ECA launched a €15m SADC project to build responsible, decarbonised critical minerals value chains, including Mozambique.

Xenophobic Violence in South Africa: Mozambique says five citizens were killed in Mossel Bay during anti-immigrant unrest, while South African police confirm two Mozambican men died from assault injuries and say investigations are ongoing; Mozambique also reports hundreds affected, with repatriation underway and fears of more violence as groups set a June 30 deadline for foreigners to leave. Repatriation Push: Around 548 Mozambicans are expected to be flown home from OR Tambo, after many were sheltered in the Free State and Western Cape following attacks and burned homes. Public Health & Food Security: Mozambique extended its nationwide livestock vaccination campaign to July 15 due to delays in imported vaccines, targeting cattle and poultry diseases to protect animal health and livelihoods. Governance & Accountability: Mozambique’s CDD is demanding a forensic audit into alleged mismanagement at state airline LAM over the purchase of Embraer-190 aircraft that have been grounded in South Africa. Energy & Investment: Mozambique says resumption of major gas projects is drawing South Korean investment, including through Kogas’ stakes linked to Rovuma Basin developments.

Xenophobia Crisis in South Africa: Mozambique says at least five of its nationals were killed in “xenophobic attacks” in Mossel Bay, with the government initially citing seven deaths total (five linked to attacks, two in a road accident) and reporting about 800 Mozambicans caught up in the violence; it says around 300 returned home and just over 500 are sheltered in Western Cape as repatriation begins. Regional Diplomacy & Integration: A petition has been filed with the African Union seeking removal of AfCFTA Secretary-General Wamkele Mene, citing recurring xenophobic violence in South Africa and arguing it undermines free movement goals. SADC Energy Cooperation: SADC Sustainable Energy Week in Victoria Falls drew regional leaders, with Mozambique-linked officials highlighting the push for faster energy action and milestones across the year. SADC Fisheries Oversight: SADC reappointed Stanley Ndara to chair the regional fisheries monitoring control and surveillance centre in Maputo, aimed at tackling illegal fishing across member states. Mozambique in the News Cycle: Mozambique’s tourism push also features in SADC justice talks, where ministers are set to debate a proposed SADC Tourism UNIVISA to ease travel across the bloc.

Mozambique–South Africa Tensions: A petition has been filed with the African Union seeking removal of AfCFTA Secretary-General Wamkele Mene, citing recurring xenophobic attacks in South Africa that have affected citizens including Mozambicans. Regional Fisheries: SADC has re-elected Stanley Ndara to lead the regional fisheries monitoring, control and surveillance body, with the centre based in Maputo and tasked with tackling illegal fishing. Mozambique Economy Watch: The Bank of Mozambique says payment defaults are rising, with non-performing loan pressure increasing at some banks, while the AfDB forecasts Mozambique growth at 2.1% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027, tied to a recovery in extractives and easing inflation. Governance & Security: In KwaZulu-Natal’s border area, Jozini’s mayor says financial irregularities and cross-border crime are being tackled through cost controls and grant/salary account separation. Opposition Violence in Mozambique: DW reports killings of ANAMOLA members in Manica and Gaza, with the party alleging state complicity. International Spillover: France, with Britain’s support, intercepted a sanctioned Russian-linked tanker in the Atlantic, underscoring wider sanctions enforcement that can affect regional trade.

Xenophobia Shock in South Africa: After African Day boycotts and repatriations, South Africa is facing fresh scrutiny over xenophobic violence linked to groups like Operation Dudula, with reports of deaths and diplomatic complaints from neighbours including Mozambique. Mozambique Banking Stress: Mozambique’s central bank says payment defaults are rising: by 31 March, 14.47% of credit at BCI was in default, with overdue debts tied to household strain, weaker corporate income and higher living costs. AfDB Growth Outlook: The AfDB forecasts Mozambique GDP growth of 2.1% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027, citing a recovery in extractives, easing inflation pressures and a widening fiscal deficit. Cabo Delgado Security Funding: Mozambique confirms it will secure funds to keep Rwandan troops operating against Islamist terrorism in Cabo Delgado, giving Mozambican forces time to train and reorganize. Mozambique-China Trade Boost: A state visit by President Daniel Chapo highlights Mozambique’s early benefit from China’s zero-tariff policy for LDCs, expanded from 1 May 2026. Nature Discovery: A new chameleon species has been identified in Mozambique’s sky-island forests, named in tribute to Jane Goodall. Power and Planning Warning: A worsening power crisis is again blamed on poor planning, with Kariba water limits contributing to rolling outages.

Mozambique–China Trade Boost: Mozambique’s president Daniel Chapo has just completed a landmark state visit to China, with the timing tied to Beijing’s zero-tariff push that began for least developed countries on 1 Dec 2024 and expanded to all African states with diplomatic ties from 1 May 2026—an effort expected to open wider export access for Maputo. Cabo Delgado Security Funding: The Mozambican government says it will secure funds to keep Rwandan troops operating against Islamist terrorism in Cabo Delgado, giving Mozambican forces time to train and prepare as external support arrangements are reviewed. Investment Interest from South Africa: South African business leaders met President Chapo ahead of a Mozambique Investment Summit later this year, signaling interest in backing Mozambique’s mining, energy, tourism, finance and infrastructure priorities. Regional Finance Push: The AfDB and the World Economic Forum launched a Humanitarian and Resilience Investing roadmap for frontier economies, with pilots including Mozambique, aiming to shift from aid dependence toward private investment. Power and Energy Context: Mozambique’s wider region remains strained by energy shocks and financing gaps, as seen in reporting on power-crisis spillovers and the need for more resilient fuel and electricity planning across southern Africa.

Power Crisis Watch: Mozambique’s region is feeling the heat as Zimbabwe’s Kariba water shortfall slashed generation to about 200MW at the dam, worsening rolling outages and exposing planning gaps in grid supply. Mozambique Rail Reform: Mozambique is considering opening the national rail network to private operators, aiming to boost freight and passenger services while easing CFM’s monopoly. Tourism Push with AI: Mozambique launched Anditur, a new tourism agency tasked with using AI for personalised promotion, booking tools and destination management, alongside investment facilitation. LNG & Energy Accountability: Mozambique challenged TotalEnergies over a reported $2bn LNG cost overrun, commissioning a third-party audit that couldn’t confirm the delay-related costs. Regional Security: Ethiopia’s top general met Mozambique’s military chief to deepen cooperation on counter-terrorism and cyber security, linking peace to development. Culture & Diplomacy: Mozambique hosted a China-Africa cultural exchange tour in Maputo, with artists and officials highlighting long-running ties. Humanitarian Reality: UN reporting flags a sharp rise in conflict-related sexual violence in 2025, including cases linked to northern Mozambique.

Energy Security: Zimbabwe announced a multi-billion plan to cut its reliance on imported fuel and power, including building strategic fuel reserves and boosting domestic ethanol/biodiesel blending after regional supply shocks. Mozambique LNG & Power: Mozambique challenged TotalEnergies over a reported $2bn LNG cost overrun tied to delays, while Massingir Dam restoration needs about six million meticais after vandalism damaged key electrical equipment. Transport Reform: Mozambique is considering opening its national rail network to private operators alongside coastal shipping revival and new urban rail links in Maputo and Matola. Tourism Push: Mozambique launched Anditur, a new tourism agency tasked with using AI for personalised promotion, booking and market intelligence, plus investment facilitation. Regional Finance: AfDB and the World Economic Forum unveiled the HRI Roadmap for Africa to mobilise private investment in fragile economies, with pilots already running in Mozambique and other states. Humanitarian & Rights: The UN reported a sharp rise in conflict-related sexual violence in 2025, including attacks involving armed groups in northern Mozambique. Safety & Tensions: UN-linked reporting also flags a worsening humanitarian spiral across Mozambique amid violence, displacement and shortages.

Xenophobia in South Africa: Threats of possible mobilisation against foreign nationals by June 30 are circulating online, with police saying they’re monitoring anti-foreigner sentiment and warning against violence; the EFF’s Julius Malema argues migrants are being scapegoated for unemployment and collapsing services. Mozambique LNG and recovery: Mozambique’s LNG plans face progress but unrest persists, while the country taps gas revenues for post-unrest recovery and flood reconstruction. Security and infrastructure: Massingir Dam in Gaza needs about six million meticais to restore vandalised electrical equipment after attacks on cables and transformers. Airline update: Mozambique Airlines (LAM) says two aircraft grounded in South Africa are not flying because they’re being repainted and require procedure changes, while it continues operating with leased planes. Agriculture and food resilience: ICRISAT expands climate-resilient chickpea seed production across Southern Africa, including Mozambique, to help farmers cope with fertilizer costs and unpredictable weather. Investment push: AfDB and the World Economic Forum launch an HRI Roadmap for Africa, with pilots already underway in Mozambique, aiming to shift from aid dependence to investment-led development. Culture ties: A China-Africa cultural exchange tour and “Silk Road Art Dialogue” exhibition opened in Maputo, highlighting growing cultural cooperation.

Mozambique Security & Justice: Armed men attacked villagers and traders in Macomia district, with four incidents in two weeks raising fresh alarms about state protection in Cabo Delgado. Cabo Delgado Violence: Church-linked monitors report Islamist attacks in northern Mozambique, including killings of Christians and destruction of churches in Ancuabe District. Financial Integrity: Mozambique’s removal from the Financial Action Task Force grey list is being tested again, with officials warning the country could be re-listed if enforcement and compliance don’t keep improving ahead of the next mutual evaluation. Energy & LNG: Mozambique LNG plans face continued unrest, while South Africa’s Port of Ngqura moves ahead with a major LNG terminal deal that underlines regional gas momentum. Health Preparedness: Mozambique’s health ministry says there are no recorded Ebola cases, but it is stepping up surveillance and training as outbreaks spread in the DRC and Uganda. Education & Culture: Mozambique hosted the Mozambican finals of the Chinese Bridge competition, with a national winner set to represent the country in China. Local Development: Italian firms plan €100m for “green cities” in Mozambique, including water supply, park regeneration and recycling projects.

Security & Justice: Mozambique’s grey-list risk is back in the spotlight as officials warn the country could be re-listed if anti-money-laundering and counter-terror financing enforcement doesn’t keep strengthening; meanwhile, armed men attacked villagers and traders in Macomia, raising fresh alarms about state protection. Disaster & Food Security: FAO says repeated flooding has hit Mozambique hard, affecting over 724,000 people and damaging about 440,000 hectares of farmland, with agriculture taking the biggest losses; the agency is seeking major funding for recovery and resilience through 2031. Health Preparedness: MISAU reports no recorded Ebola cases in Mozambique but is stepping up surveillance, training, and simulation exercises in provinces including Cabo Delgado and Niassa. Energy & LNG: Mozambique LNG plans face continued unrest, while offshore FLNG demand remains strong, with Mozambique’s Coral project among those benefiting from the global boom. Education & Culture: Mozambique hosted the Chinese Bridge competition at Eduardo Mondlane University, boosting language and cultural exchanges ahead of the global finals in China. Local Development: Italian firms plan €100m for “green cities” in Chimoio and Cabo Delgado, targeting water supply, park regeneration and recycling.

Mozambique LNG row: Mozambique pushes back on TotalEnergies’ claim that LNG delays cost $2bn, saying an audit couldn’t confirm the overruns and that talks continue over costs and an updated development plan. Flood recovery funding: FAO says Mozambique needs $107.6m by 2031 to help 1.8m people recover from extreme weather, with Gaza, Inhambane, Maputo, Sofala, Manica and Tete hit hardest. Humanitarian health: OCHA will disburse €1.7m for anticipatory action against cholera, linking early outbreak signals to fast funding to prevent larger spikes. Security and aid in Cabo Delgado: MSF teams run mobile clinics out of safer northern towns, moving quickly across rough terrain to reach communities near the conflict-affected areas. Regional cooperation: The African Union launched a new humanitarian coordination platform to improve crisis response across displacement, hunger, conflict and climate disasters, despite a major funding gap. Cross-border crime watch: Mozambique Police seized a truck with 40,000 litres of fuel in Matola, suspecting smuggling to South Africa.

Mozambique LNG dispute: Mozambique pushed back on TotalEnergies’ claim that LNG delays cost the project partners $2bn, saying an audit couldn’t confirm the figure and that talks are ongoing before an updated development plan is approved. Post-unrest recovery funding: The government approved amendments to the 2026 plan and budget to use 3.57bn meticais from oil and gas revenues for rebuilding after 2024–25 unrest and for flood and cyclone damage. Cholera preparedness: OCHA will release 1.9m dollars for anticipatory action against cholera, linking early outbreak signals to faster funding to prevent major spikes. Digital ID push: Mozambique invited firms to bid for a mobile digital ID and e-signature system, with work led by the new ATDI and funded through World Bank EDGE support. Fuel smuggling crackdown: Mozambique Police seized a truck with 40,000 litres of fuel in Matola, suspecting it was headed for illegal trade to South Africa. Foreign currency pressure: CIP urged measures to cut Mozambique’s vulnerability to forex shortages, warning that exchange-rate stress is hitting growth and jobs. Wildlife gains: Mozambique says its elephant numbers doubled since 2018 to about 21,700, citing stronger monitoring and anti-poaching efforts. Regional security and tourism: Kruger Park tightened security after a tourist couple was found murdered near the Mozambique border, while South Africa’s tourism arrivals rose in April despite the Iran war’s impact on overseas travel.

Mozambique Digital ID Push: Mozambique has called for bids to build a mobile digital ID and e-signature system, with the Digital Transformation and Innovation Agency (ATDI) set to oversee rollout under World Bank EDGE funding, and firms due to respond by June 5. Regional Security Spillover: The week’s biggest shock in the region is South Africa’s Kruger killings—SANParks says tyre tracks suggest the victims’ vehicle may have been driven through the bush and into Mozambique, prompting tighter border-area patrols and surveillance. Energy Pressure Across Borders: Kenya is weighing Turkish ship-mounted power plants to ease worsening electricity shortages, while Mozambique’s own energy and finance stress remains in focus as the country seeks new IMF support and better liquidity. Business and Governance Signals: A Swiss court has ended a Credit Suisse compliance case tied to Mozambique’s tuna bond scandal due to time limits, while Zimbabwe’s Toastmasters leadership election highlights growing regional influence beyond big capitals.

Mozambique’s Monetary Tightrope: The Bank of Mozambique kept the MIMO rate at 9.25% but warned inflation risks could slide into double digits if the Middle East conflict drags on, citing fuel-price effects, supply disruptions and imported inflation—while also pointing to “comfortable” reserves after an early IMF debt repayment of about $700m. Fuel Crisis Fallout: The central bank links recent fuel shortages to distributor bankruptcies and a lack of access to US-dollar bank guarantees, even as fuel prices were raised earlier this May. Kruger Shock, Mozambique Link: In South Africa, SANParks tightened security after two tourists were found murdered near Crooks Corner; tyre tracks suggested a vehicle was driven through the Mozambique fence, prompting extra monitoring and patrols. Regional Unity Push: Mozambique’s President Chapo used Africa Day to call for stronger intra-African trade corridors and cross-border infrastructure to overcome colonial-era borders. Business Spotlight: South Africa’s Quantum Foods reported higher first-half profits as poultry demand improved and feed costs eased—its operations include Mozambique.

Mozambique Monetary Policy: The Bank of Mozambique kept its benchmark rate at 9.25%, saying inflation is easing but warning Iran-linked price pressures could push inflation into double digits, with risks including fiscal strain, climate shocks and regional instability. Regional Migration Tensions: South Africa rejected a “Trump wall” style approach, saying it will press neighbours to share border responsibility as anti-migrant protests flare in multiple cities. Central Bank Caution Across Africa: Many African central banks paused rate cuts as renewed oil shocks threaten to re-ignite inflation. Mozambique Policy Watch: Mozambique opened public consultation on a draft National AI Strategy and invited feedback through June, aiming for safer AI rules and a data-centre hub push. Local Business: Zeda reported stronger first-half results, led by leasing growth and higher car sales, while car rental weighed on performance. Safety & Tourism Shock (Region): South Africa’s Kruger National Park faced an unprecedented double murder case, prompting renewed security reassurances.